Plans Are Hypotheses
Day 8 of 30 · Done is better - Build What Matters
A plan is not truth. It is a bet.
Learning goal
- Frame plans as hypotheses to be tested.
- Define what would confirm or disprove the plan.
- Update the plan when evidence contradicts it.
Why it matters
- Plans are guesses about the future.
- Evidence should update the plan.
- Defending a failed plan wastes resources.
Key idea
A plan is a bet: if we do X, we expect Y. Define the smallest test of that bet. When evidence says otherwise, update the hypothesis; do not defend the plan.
Procedure
- Write the plan as a bet: if we do X, we expect Y.
- Define the smallest test of that bet (one move).
- Set a time or signal to evaluate: did Y happen?
- If not, update the hypothesis; do not defend the plan.
Common mistakes
- Treating the plan as fixed and defending it.
- No clear criterion for success or failure.
- Confusing planning with execution.
Today's move
Turn one current plan into a hypothesis: "If we [do X], we expect [Y]." Define one test you can run this week to check it.
Self-check
- You can explain the key idea in one sentence.
- You have one concrete move to do today.