Plans Are Hypotheses
Day 8 of 30 · Done is better - Build What Matters
Learning goal
Frame plans as hypotheses to be tested.
Who
Anyone who wants to improve their planning skills.
What
Learn how to turn a plan into a hypothesis and update it based on evidence.
Where
This lesson will be completed online.
When
You can start now.
Why it matters
Plans are guesses about the future.
How
Step 1: Write the plan as a bet
Write the plan as a bet: if we do X, we expect Y.
Step 2: Define the smallest test of that bet
Define the smallest test of that bet (one move).
Step 3: Set a time or signal to evaluate
Set a time or signal to evaluate: did Y happen?
Step 4: Update the hypothesis
If not, update the hypothesis; do not defend the plan.
Guided exercise
Turn one current plan into a hypothesis: "If we [do X], we expect [Y]." Define one test you can run this week to check it.
Independent exercise
Practice turning plans into hypotheses and updating them based on evidence.
Self-check
- You can explain the key idea in one sentence.
- You have one concrete move to do today.
Bibliography (sources used)
- [Source 1]
- [Source 2]
Read more (optional)
Today
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