Plans Are Hypotheses

Learning goal

Frame plans as hypotheses to be tested.

Who

Anyone who wants to improve their planning skills.

What

Learn how to turn a plan into a hypothesis and update it based on evidence.

Where

This lesson will be completed online.

When

You can start now.

Why it matters

Plans are guesses about the future.

How

Step 1: Write the plan as a bet

Write the plan as a bet: if we do X, we expect Y.

Step 2: Define the smallest test of that bet

Define the smallest test of that bet (one move).

Step 3: Set a time or signal to evaluate

Set a time or signal to evaluate: did Y happen?

Step 4: Update the hypothesis

If not, update the hypothesis; do not defend the plan.

Guided exercise

Turn one current plan into a hypothesis: "If we [do X], we expect [Y]." Define one test you can run this week to check it.

Independent exercise

Practice turning plans into hypotheses and updating them based on evidence.

Self-check

• You can explain the key idea in one sentence.
• You have one concrete move to do today.

Bibliography (sources used)

• [Source 1]
• [Source 2]

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